Boshijijin Wei Fengchun a not pessimistic short-term crisis in the troop – fund channel www.51zxw.net

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Boshijijin Wei Fengchun: A shares not pessimistic short-term crisis in the circumstances – fund channel A shares in the week before the Spring Festival holiday rose significantly, small cap stock index rose relatively leading consumption and part of the cycle (colored) industry gainers. But before the holiday volume is flat, financing balance continues to decrease, a record low since last fall in June. During the Spring Festival, overseas stock index generally fell, the Japanese and European markets showed a larger decline in U.S. stocks is relatively smaller. Because the holiday news is relatively diverse, overseas asset market present situation is more complicated, not simply to increased risk aversion to sum up. For example, gold rose while the dollar index fell, and the euro, the yen and even the RMB rose sharply against the dollar. International stock markets also have a pattern of contradictions, Europe, Japan and other core stock markets fell sharply, while marginal or emerging stock markets are limited. Thus, there are more than one driving factor leading to the decline in global stock markets, and the dominant driving factors are not obvious. Review of the global stock market performance over the past three years, up from either the monetary policy stimulus, either from the leaders of expectations change in economic growth, the implementation level is less. In 2016, Ouriduo central bank has resorted to negative interest rate policy, to stimulate the economy and inflation. Since 2008, the long term low interest rate policy introduced by central banks may have consumed market patience, and investors may be disappointed with the progress and effectiveness of intervention by central banks. However, we always believe that a good monetary policy should be a friend of long-term equity investment. Although the short-term investors led by the fed to the central bank to boost economic recovery ability have concerns, but if the introduction of greater efforts to stimulate the market, should be through the trigger conditions. The turmoil in the overseas market may have an impact on the A shares, but the extent of the impact should be within the controllable range. Looking back on history, the impact of foreign A shares is more events, such as the European debt crisis, and QE’s stimulus to commodities. But since the reform of the RMB exchange rate in August 2015, the foreign countries have more influence on A shares through the channels of RMB exchange rate and capital flow. However, the turmoil in the overseas market has pushed up the RMB exchange rate. In January, foreign exchange reserves fell 99 billion 500 million dollars, also lower than the extreme expectations of the market. Therefore, in the short term, the RMB exchange rate pressure on the market should tend to decrease. If 2016 from the strict data argument, since the impact of A shares of stocks, even than stocks on the next day A shares to. Our report before the holiday is "holding the holiday", the main consideration is that the RMB exchange rate or foreign exchange reserves will affect the loss of A shares, while the January foreign exchange reserves data may impact on the market. During the Spring Festival, the overseas stock market fell at the same time, the dollar index fell sharply, the RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar, and in January, the outflow of foreign reserves was better than expected, so the impact of the A shares may be resolved. During the holiday season and brewing opportunities such as hot spots, the movie box office and the soaring price of gold, the emerging consumption growth, tensions on the Korean Peninsula as well as local NPC and CPPCC, or from the boost to the market. In summary, we are A)

博时基金魏凤春看市:A股短期不悲观 危中见机-基金频道   A股在春节休市前一周明显上涨,中小盘股指涨幅相对领先,消费与部分周期(有色)行业涨幅居前。但节前成交量平淡,融资余额继续减少,创下去年6月大跌以来的新低。春节期间,境外股指普遍下跌,其中日本与欧洲股市跌幅较大,美股跌幅相对略小。  由于节假期间消息相对多元,境外各资产市场呈现较为复杂的局面,不能简单地以避险情绪上升来概括。比如,黄金上涨的同时美元指数下跌,欧元、日元乃至人民币相对美元则急剧走强。国际股市也存在矛盾格局,欧日等核心股市大幅下挫,边缘或新兴股市则跌幅有限。由此可见,导致全球股票市场下跌的驱动因素不只一种,而主导性的驱动因素也不明显。  回顾过去三年的全球股市表现,其上涨要么来自货币政策的刺激,要么来自领导人变革的期待,落实在经济增长层面则乏善可陈。进入2016年,欧日多家央行已经祭出负利率政策,以刺激经济与通胀。自2008年以来,各国央行推出的长期低利率政策,或许已消耗了市场的耐性,投资者对各国央行干预的进展与效果可能感到失望。但是,我们始终认为好的货币政策应该是长期权益投资的朋友。虽然投资者短期对以美联储为首的央行助力经济复苏的能力有所担忧,但如果出台力度更大的刺激,应是市场转危为安的促发条件。  境外市场的动荡对A股可能有影响,但是影响的程度应该在可控的范围之内。回顾历史,境外对A股的影响更多是事件冲击,比如欧洲债务危机,以及QE对商品的刺激等。但自2015年8月的人民币汇率改革以来,境外更多是通过人民币汇率和资本流动的渠道来影响A股。但是,这次境外市场的动荡反而推升人民币汇率走强。而1月外汇储备下跌995亿美元,也低于市场的极端预期。因此短期来看,人民币汇率对市场的压力应趋于减小。如果从严格的数据论证来看,2016年以来,A股对美股的影响,甚至比美股对次日A股的影响要为显著。  我们在节前的报告观点是“持币过节”,主要考虑是人民币汇率或外汇储备流失将影响A股,而1月外汇储备数据的公布对市场可能有所冲击。春节期间,境外股票市场同步下跌,美元指数急剧下挫,人民币对美元显著升值,再者1月外储流失好于预期,因此该因素对A股冲击可能有所化解。而在节假期间酝酿的机会热点,如电影票房与黄金价格飙升、新兴消费持续增长、朝鲜半岛局势紧张以及地方两会等,或对市场产生由点到面的提振作用。  总结而言,我们对A股的短期表现不悲观,建议维持中性仓位,如果前半周有大幅下挫,可以考虑逐步增仓。配置风格建议以科技、消费为主,辅之以部分周期,特别是受供给侧改革催化的相关行业。  (文 博时基金宏观策略部总经理魏凤春)相关的主题文章: